The 2024 NBA Finals have come. Game 1 is scheduled for Thursday night. Dallas faces Boston. The Celtics are the favorites, but most people, including myself, believe this is a much closer series than that number would suggest.
I believe this is a classic series. I have the Mavericks in seven, but even if the Celtics win in six, or vice versa, both games will be close. As it turns out, this is one of my five daring predictions for the series. Here they are. Let’s get to it.
1. Luka averages 35 points per game
Only nine players have averaged at least 35 points in a single Finals game: Michael Jordan (twice), Shaquille O’Neal, Rick Barry, Elgin Baylor, LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jerry West, Allen Iverson, and Kevin Durant. Luka will become the tenth.
Doncic has only ever averaged more than 35 points per game in a single playoff series (35.7 against the Clippers in 2021). It’s a massive number. But Dallas will have to score big in this series, and any notion that Boston is particularly equipped to guard Luka was essentially dashed by what he did to Minnesota, which was similarly stacked with big, agile, switchable perimeter defenders and a world-class rim protector on the back end.
2. Finals point differential will be under 20
Around one-third of all NBA Finals have ended with a scoring margin of less than 20 points (24 of 76 series). This will be the 25th, and I feel the winner of this series might lose the point differential battle, as has happened 11 times in history, the most recent being the 2012-13 Heat. That Miami club was outscored by the Spurs by five points in the series but won the championship, and given how close this series is, that could happen again this year.
3. At least six ‘clutch’ games
Clutch games are defined as being within five points at any time during the final five minutes. I projected that this series would go seven games, so I’ll allow for one game to have some relative separation by the time we reach the end. However, the rest of the game will come down to the wire, which is nothing new for either club.
In fact, this is only the fourth Finals in the last 25 years where both teams played at least three crucial games in the conference finals. Furthermore, in each of the three previous cases (2009 Magic vs. Lakers, 2011 Heat vs. Mavericks, and 2020 Heat vs. Lakers), the Finals included at least three “clutch” games with razor-thin margins.
The fact that I expect a close series is why I’m giving Dallas the advantage based on Doncic and Kyrie Irving’s all-world closing abilities. Consider the following information from CBS Sports research:
Doncic is 3 for 3 in his playoff career on game-tying/go-ahead field-goal tries in the final 24 seconds of the fourth quarter/overtime. That’s tied for the most consecutive makes by a player in the last 25 years (Trae Young also has three).
In their playoff careers, Doncic and Irving have gone a combined 4 for 4 on game-tying/go-ahead field-goal tries in the final 24 seconds of the fourth quarter/OT, and 7 for 9 in the final minute, with Doncic going 4 for 5 and Kyrie 3 for 4 in these do-or-die circumstances. That’s insane.
4. Porzingis takes center stage
Kristaps Porzingis has not played since Game 4 of Boston’s first-round series against Miami. He is anticipated to start Game 1 of the Finals, and as the series progresses, he will be one of the most important storylines to monitor.
One question is whether Boston’s offense will be unstoppable once Porzingis’ spacing, shooting, and mismatch-punishing post game returns. Second, will Porzingis be able to defend effectively? Dallas does not have 3-point shooting centers who can draw him out from the paint to free up driving lanes. However, Doncic and Irving will hound him aggressively, using his guy as a ball screener and pushing Porzingis to switch to them.
Don’t be surprised if Boston tries to preempt this plan by having Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown cover the Dallas centers in anticipation of traditional 1-5 pick and rolls, but Luka will simply call up Derrick Jones Jr. or P.J. Washington — whichever Porzingis is covering — as the screener. The basic result is that Porzingis will be viewed as both a possible defensive problem and a significant benefit to the already lethal Boston attack.
5. Dallas scores historic upset
Okay, so how am I proposing that a Mavericks victory would be a historic upset when I just stated how evenly matched these teams are and how tight I expect this series to be? For this, I owe the great Bill Simmons, who stated on his show that 14 of the 15 teams in history who entered the Finals with a combined 20 or fewer losses throughout the regular and postseason have gone on to win the title. The only team to upset one of those juggernauts was the 2016 Cavaliers, who beat the 73-win Warriors (due in large part to Irving’s clutch shot in Game 7).
Boston is the 16th team to enter the Finals with no more than 20 total losses (they have 20 after finishing 64-18 in the regular season and losing just two playoff games so far), so the Mavericks would have to become only the second team in history to pull off such an upset.
This is not to mention the fact that only one club in history has won a title despite being placed lower than No. 4 (1994-95 Rockets, seeded No. 6). The Mavericks were the West’s fifth seed. Dallas appears to be an elite team, and the Mavericks are undoubtedly a different squad than they were prior to the trade deadline. However, from a historical standpoint, they are attempting to perform a tiny miracle. And I believe they will accomplish it.
Joeal Bright is a committed journalist at WVPrepBB.com, focusing on USA and crime news. With a knack for in-depth reporting and a dedication to delivering accurate and timely information, Joeal keeps readers informed about crucial national events and crime stories. His work on WVPrepBB.com is essential for those seeking comprehensive coverage and insightful analysis of current events in the United States.
